WHEN WILL AUSTRALIA REOPEN?
15 January 2021
There has been much belated discussion recently about most
Australians being set to receive the less effective AstraZeneca
(AZN) COVID-19 vaccine, rather than the Pfizer vaccine. This was a topic I
flagged in July 2020 https://www.linkedin.com/posts/nickbirrell_covid-19-vaccine-deals-activity-6690454536966025216-_g30
Some are arguing that Australians should be
content with the less effective vaccine because we are in such a
good state regarding COVID-19.
We are in such a good state as we are an island that has
closed to the world, a result that I forecast 9 months ago
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/nickbirrell_kintan-pty-ltd-activity-6654926659575209984-eEjj
Australia is an isolated country with numerous
personal and business connections to the world. The impact of closing
the country has been dramatic as this ABS graph shows. So when will we re-open? It is evident that
Australian governments have no plan and no idea on how or when to
reopen. They can
hardly manage the limited inflow of overseas arrivals and have had
to halve the number.
The fact that the majority of Australians will
be receiving the AZN vaccine will not greatly help the
COVID-terrified governments form a plan. Knowing that 40% or so
of vaccine recipients are still susceptible to the disease will
not encourage the governments to want recipients to travel to
countries where they may become infected. Or if they do let them
out, then they certainly will not let them back if infected.
The AZN vaccine may stop you dying or being
hospitalised from COVID-19 and it may help stop some premiers
closing their states every few weeks, but it is unlikely to reopen
Australia to the world. The
government should be lining up Pfizer and Moderna vaccine
contracts for delivery as soon as possible, even if for a second
round. In the
meantime, we can have the AZN immunisation and if, having received
mRNA vaccines, we have too many doses of the AZN vaccine, we
can give them to countries which are further behind in vaccination
and less dependent on international travel.
Otherwise, expect not to visit your overseas
friends, relatives or business connections until 2022 or maybe
2023. I will be happy if the government shows me that I am wrong
by showing a plan.
